A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
